A study from UNSW warns global GDP could drop 40% by 2100 with 4°C temperature rise, urging immediate action to mitigate extreme climate impacts.
 |
| A new UNSW study warns that a 4°C rise in global temperatures could severely reduce global GDP by 40% by 2100, urging policymakers to rethink climate strategies. Image: Collected |
Sydney, Australia — April 1, 2025:
A groundbreaking study from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) has issued a stark warning: global GDP could plummet by as much as 40% by 2100 if temperatures increase by 4°C. This is a significant revision from earlier forecasts, which projected an 11% decline, highlighting the far-reaching economic consequences of unchecked global warming.
The research, conducted by UNSW’s Institute for Climate Risk & Response (ICRR), challenges conventional economic models that have guided climate policies. Lead researcher Timothy Neal stated that these models have largely underestimated the impacts of climate change by overlooking how extreme weather events disrupt global supply chains and economies.
"Earlier models failed to account for the widespread economic damage caused by severe climate events," said Neal. "What happens in one region—whether it's flooding in Southeast Asia or droughts in Africa—can have ripple effects that impact countries far away, such as Canada or Russia."
The findings strengthen the argument for limiting global warming to 1.7°C, in line with the Paris Agreement's targets. In contrast to the previously accepted 2.7°C threshold, this new analysis calls for urgent climate action to prevent catastrophic economic consequences, such as skyrocketing food prices, higher insurance premiums, and more severe disruptions to global trade.
Neal emphasized that current economic models must evolve to reflect the real-world challenges posed by climate change. "It’s no longer enough to look at historical weather patterns; we need to consider the vulnerabilities of interconnected global economies to truly understand the cost of climate inaction."
This research provides a dire reminder of the urgency required in addressing climate change, stressing the importance of swift action to mitigate global warming and reduce the risk of economic collapse in the future.